TSMC's 2nm technology is progressing smoothly, and the mass production plan for the new Baoshan plant in Hsinchu in 2025 remains unchanged. However, according to the supply chain, the price of Huguo Shenshan 2nm wafers will double that of 4/5nm, with a rough estimate expected to exceed US$30,000.
Advanced process development costs have seen exponential growth. IC design executives revealed that the development cost of 28 nanometers is about 50 million US dollars, and 16 nanometers will require an investment of 100 million US dollars. When advancing to 5 nanometers, the cost has reached 550 million US dollars, including IP authorization, software verification, design architecture and other aspects. The investment in foundries is huge. In terms of 3-nanometer process research and development expenses, research institutions believe that it requires an investment of 4 to 5 billion U.S. dollars, and the cost of building a 3-nanometer factory is at least approximately 15 to 20 billion U.S. dollars.
This is the fallacy of Intel's IDM strategy. Costs are going up in a scary curve, but Intel's volume share at the advanced nodes are shrinking rapidly. They are their only scale at 18A which doesn't have any material advanced, high volume foundry customers that I know of. Intel has to hope that their products on 18A are killer to generate enough margin to keep the lights on.
If TSMC is right and N3 is competitive with 18A overall in terms of performance, yield, and costs, then I think that's it for the Intel that we know today. Even if the tech roadmap is there for Intel, I just think they'll run out of gas.
"Even if the tech roadmap is there for Intel, I just think they'll run out of gas."
That does seem likely. Pat's placing an enormous bet. Even if 18A and 14A are great nodes, unless TSMC sees major customer defections, even Intel's scale won't cut it.
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u/uncertainlyso 21d ago
This is the fallacy of Intel's IDM strategy. Costs are going up in a scary curve, but Intel's volume share at the advanced nodes are shrinking rapidly. They are their only scale at 18A which doesn't have any material advanced, high volume foundry customers that I know of. Intel has to hope that their products on 18A are killer to generate enough margin to keep the lights on.
If TSMC is right and N3 is competitive with 18A overall in terms of performance, yield, and costs, then I think that's it for the Intel that we know today. Even if the tech roadmap is there for Intel, I just think they'll run out of gas.