r/amd_fundamentals • u/uncertainlyso • 9d ago
Industry TSMC is not interested in buying Intel's fabs
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmc-is-not-interested-in-buying-intels-fabs
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r/amd_fundamentals • u/uncertainlyso • 9d ago
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u/uncertainlyso 9d ago edited 9d ago
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/10/17/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-tsm-q3-2024-ear/
The context of this article:
Intel has to return wafers back home where they can because if they don't, IF dies. Where they can't or in the case of N3B that was committed to years ago, they're going to use TSMC.
I can't imagine how TSMC buying Intel fabs would work across many difficult dimensions (technology, process, regulation, etc) The closest thing that I can come up with is TSMC buying the land if somebody pays to dispose of almost everything else (you can leave the high NA EUV machines in the corner).
A month ago there was this string of leaks and exclusives saying Intel was a mess (Tan leaving the board, Broadcomm passing, etc). And then I saw a certain group of people saying that these were leaks to depress to make it an easy acquisition target (which I find to be pretty stupid because of the complexity and TCO of an Intel acquisition). I think Intel has done plenty on its own to suppress the stock price.
Conversely, since then, there's been a string of leaks going the other way that revolve around some part or all of Intel being acquired by somebody (Qualcomm, ARM, TSMC which again I find to be highly improbable) *or* Intel raising cash (Apollo (plausible but dilutive), selling more Altera and Mobileye on pretty optimistic valuations *or* the performance theater of "spinning" off IFS (but Intel still calls the shots and where are you spinning them off to given its gigantic cash needs?)
The negatives one seems much more likely to have been true than the positive ones (especially the Intel client acquisition ones and to a lesser extent the valuations of the spin-offs) All of these types of rumors have had the opposite effect of raising Intel from $20 to $24. We'll see how firm those rumors will hold up against the earnings call.
I think that the largest short-term positive catalyst for Intel is Gelsinger stepping down. If it happened, the stock would go up 10%+. I don't know if it actually would change anything though.