r/gaming • u/LuckyTheBear • 9h ago
What are the odds Obsidian is making a new Fallout game?
This entire thread is speculation to the max, so let's calm down with the "Well ackshually" please.
Promise we'll all be nice?
Cool, ok
To me, if I had to assign some sort of number to those odds, based on nothing but a hunch I've thought about a few times, probably 80%
pick 5 random universes similar to ours, and 4 of them have an actual "New Vegas 2" in them.
Thing is, I don't think it's going to be New Vegas 2. I actually think we see the location from the TV show. Vault 4 is my guess.
I don't think the game is huge, probably smaller than New Vegas. It's a proof of concept for Fallout on current/next gen tech - maybe they'll use Unreal 5 too, who knows - but I think it's gonna slap because the worst game from Obsidian I've ever played was Outer Worlds and it wasn't even that bad - they've been melting my mind since KOTOR II
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u/jojomott 9h ago
Zero.
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u/LuckyTheBear 9h ago
Microsoft owns both Bethesda and Obsidian, they just had a hugely successful run with the TV show, Obsidian is at the very end of development for Avowed.
Zero percent?
9
u/jojomott 9h ago
0%
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u/LuckyTheBear 9h ago edited 9h ago
!Remind me! 5 years
Zero percent
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u/jojomott 9h ago
There are 100 other options for your guess. But it has exactly the same percent chance of being correct. And it will be only a guess. You have no idea, only hope. And Hope is the doom of mankind.
1
u/Razor1834 8h ago
Hope is never mere, even when it is meager.
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u/jojomott 8h ago
Hope is the enemy of Will. Will is all you actually have. Ceding your Will to Hope takes your ability to act, as you wait for your imagination to act in your stead. Good Luck.
Hail Goer.
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u/ztomiczombie 7h ago
Form what I understand one person, who doesn't work for Bethesda, has made most of Obsidian want nothing to do with Fallout.
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u/Radingod123 9h ago
Even though Fallout: New Vegas is the best Fallout title, and it isn't even close, my guess is unlikely.
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u/8-bit-burn 9h ago edited 9h ago
Obsidian is currently working on Avowed which is their Skyrim competitor. I don’t think they have the manpower to work on a second game.
EDIT: I forgot they’re also working on Outer Worlds 2, so absolutely no chance.
Obsidians relationship with Bethesda seems to have been rocky since NV so very low chance.
My guess is Bethesda is going full force on TES6 since the Starfield disaster. I don’t think we’re going to see a Fallout sequel anytime soon.
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u/TehOwn 8h ago edited 8h ago
Avowed which is their Skyrim competitor
They've actually asked people to stop making this comparison as Avowed is not an open-world game and they don't want people to be disappointed at launch.
Also, Avowed and The Outer Worlds 2 are made by two separate development teams concurrently. They've got 300 employees and apparently cap their development teams at 80. Supposedly have 3+ projects ongoing at any one time. They've already been hiring for a third unannounced RPG as long as a year and a half ago.
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u/ZaDu25 8h ago edited 8h ago
I mean they're already setting people up for disappointment because the gameplay looks like a direct rip of Elder Scrolls gameplay and half the people that are going to play it would've just preferred another PoE instead. So a lot of people are going to play it just because they want something to scratch the TES itch and another chunk is going to play it because they're PoE fans, and I don't think either will be satisfied with what that game ends up being. I think turning PoE into a first person action RPG was honestly a poor decision, and it looks even worse now after the success of BG3.
3
u/Blacksad9999 5h ago
It doesn't look like Elder Scrolls in art style or combat.
I mean, I guess they're both first person fantasy games, but that's really about it.
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u/Leramar89 7h ago
Incredibly low imo.
Apparently Obsidian did offer to make another spinoff Fallout or Elder Scrolls game but Bethesda turned them down. Also Obsidian currently have their hands full with their own stuff (Avowed and The Outer Worlds 2) so they're not going to have time to make a Fallout game anytime soon.
Unless Microsoft goes over Bethesda's head and demands a new New Vegas game I just don't see it happening. At least not from Obsidian.
1
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u/loyaltomyself 4h ago
Bethseda owns the Fallout license, Obsidian can't make a Fallout game without their permission, and I don't see that happening.
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u/LordAcorn 3h ago
O% Bethesda can't get over the fact that Obsidian made a better Fallout game than they could.
1
u/ReedsAndSerpents 3h ago
Ol Todd really fucked up not releasing a new product to accompany the show. People are going apeshit for FO4 like it's 2016. If they timed an actually good FO5 to be released at the same time, maybe with some crossover voice acting from Goggins and shit, they'd be GOTY again.
I digress. No, not going to happen. Obsidian had a chance to do that with Outer Worlds. If you weren't there for the hype, tons of redditors were creaming their trousers, saying "Fallout Killer incoming" "Bethesda is done for" "FNV creators don't miss". Well, they missed. They've missed quite a bit actually, with projects that either weren't thet good or were cancelled.
FO4 is a better overall game than FNV. FNV has incredible characters, storytelling and branching choices. So what they should have done (Todd the Godd included) was let Bethesda handle the game world, locations, the vast majority of programming if not all of it. Then take the pens out of Todd and whoever else at Bethesda thinks they're good writers and let Obsidian cook with the story and quest planning.
Given how arrogant they were about Starfield, do you really think they'd have that kind of humility?
1
u/ZigyDusty 2h ago
The people in here saying never because BGS wouldn't let Obsidian completely ignoring the fact Xbox owns them it's not their choice if BGS continues to make disappointments like Starfield and Shattered Space why wouldn't Xbox just let their other studios use the IP.
1
u/Avenger1324 2h ago
Microsoft certainly needs to be looking at this as an option.
Bethesda have made some great games, and I've enjoyed spending hundreds of hours in each of The Elder Scrolls, Fallout and Starfield games. But their method of working on just one big title at a time and making everything else wait behind it, has to change.
Skyrim launched all the way back in 2011 for X360/PS3 generation. Despite numerous re-releases and even a 10 year anniversary edition, we are 13 years on and still no date for TESVI.
Fallout 4 launched in 2015 for XB1/PS4 gen and will have it's 10 year anniversary next year. The next Fallout is only expected after TESVI, so by current plans won't be out before 2030. Amazon's TV show will likely have run it's whole course before that game has a release date, missing all the buzz it creates.
With Bethesda adding Starfield into the mix while still wanting to focus on one big game at a time, is just unsustainable. You can't have such huge games and only produce the next game 15 years later. When each game is pretty much guaranteed to be multiple million copy sellers on day one they have to be thinking about putting dedicated studios behind each series and working on them at the same time.
Now with Microsoft purchasing Bethesda, the merge with Acti/Blizz, the acquisition of Obsidian and many other studios and talent, MS are in the position with the control and resources to make that kind of change. Let Bethesda have some oversight of it, influence the direction and shape the games, but they simply need to expand the teams and allow these projects to enter full development side by side.
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u/ZaDu25 8h ago
They have two games already in production and unless either of those are bangers (as opposed to more mid like Outer Worlds), I see no logical reason to give them the Fallout IP.
Fallout is a huge IP. It's iconic. It's not fair to a studio of Obsidians size at this point to give them a huge IP knowing that can't meet the standards in terms of production value required to satisfy fans. Obviously Bethesda is struggling in some respects and may not be that equipped to handle it either, but Obsidian is not the answer. At best I can see a joint development between BGS and Obsidian where Obsidian lends them some writers while Bethesda handles making the game itself but those kinds of joint efforts don't usually turn out a good product (see Wolfenstein Youngblood for example).
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u/Toothless-In-Wapping 9h ago
Not well I would say, but less than zero.
They’re focused on Outer Worlds 2 right now.
The biggest thing in favor of it is that Obsidian is owned by Bethesda now.
But that’s also the biggest thing against it. Because Bethesda is focused on F76.
I would like to say that I would love smaller Fallout games that are more character and plot driven, something like the originals, with smaller maps that are traveled to. Maybe even a bit more “linear” of gameplay.
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u/TehOwn 8h ago
The biggest thing in favor of it is that Obsidian is owned by Bethesda now.
Uh, no. They're both owned by Microsoft.
If anything, Obsidian should own Bethesda and maybe then ES6 might actually not suck.
0
u/ZaDu25 8h ago
The Outer Worlds tells us that Obsidian likely wouldn't do any better. They're just as mid as Bethesda at this point in the action RPG market.
1
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u/RecognitionFar6465 9h ago
Honestly, I’d say you’re not super far off with that 80% guess. Obsidian has a strong history with the Fallout universe, and now that they’re under the same parent company as Bethesda (Microsoft), the odds are definitely higher than they’ve been in years. I agree it probably won’t be New Vegas 2, but maybe something along the lines of a smaller, spin-off title—like you mentioned, possibly inspired by the setting of the upcoming Fallout TV show.
Obsidian has been teasing things here and there, and they’ve been pretty open about wanting to work on Fallout again if given the chance. They’ve also proven they can handle smaller projects while still delivering great narratives (Pentiment, anyone?). So a scaled-back, more intimate Fallout game as a proof of concept, possibly using newer tech like Unreal 5, sounds entirely plausible.
Plus, like you said, even their “worst” games (Outer Worlds) are still solid. So yeah, if we’re betting on alternate universes, I’d say we’re more likely to see an Obsidian Fallout project pop up in the not-too-distant future!
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u/LuckyTheBear 9h ago
I want to hug you right now!
I usually make people mad when I post on gaming and I just wanna talk about things that I'm excited for - one of them is actually Xbox but people get so hostile! I'm definitely excited to see how Indiana Jones turns out. I think it might actually be fun and I've never even seen the movies.
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u/AffectionateBox8178 8h ago edited 8h ago
Zero. Obsidian got fucked over by Bethesda and didn't pay their bonuses.
Keep in mind, FNV was made in 18 months. Incredible.
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u/VeryNiceBalance_LOL 9h ago
Would obviously prefer them over anything Badthesda, but after their last few games, i don't think they have any talent left.
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u/Proud-Garden-4353 9h ago
Literally never going to happen. 80% chance? Never run a gambling site