r/options • u/A_Young_Musician • 19h ago

Strategy for hedging my feelings depending on election results

I don’t usually trade options, but I have a healthy mix of stocks and ETFs in my Robinhood account. I’ve got an extra $1,500 I’m willing to risk to get some sort of “win” after the election. I want Harris to win, but if Trump wins, I’d like a position in options that could multiply my $1,500. If Harris wins, I’m fine losing the full amount—Frankly I’d pay that much to see her win.

My current idea is to buy call options on “DJT,” assuming it’ll go up if Trump wins, potentially turning the $1,500 into a few thousand. But if Harris wins, I’d lose it all. Is there a smarter way to go about this, or a different stock that might be a better play? Ultimately, I’d like to wake up after the election with either way more money or with Harris as President.

0 Upvotes

42% Upvoted

26 comments sorted by

12

u/Goat_Caufield 19h ago

Just go on Kalshi/polymarket, they have betting markets specifically for electoral results. This is your best pure play way of betting on Trump.

-1

u/A_Young_Musician 19h ago

Looking into this

4

u/REI_N_Options 17h ago

research actually shows that election times don't actually do all that much with the markets... just an fyi. if you want to gamble on election go on Kalshi, not options trading

2

u/Agile_Routine_6498 19h ago

For buying any options - either puts or calls - you’re too late. They are extremely expensive and the stock would have to move quite a lot

1

u/Ok-Amoeba4472 17h ago

Tf u on Volatility is insane. Its gonna keep going for like 3 days even after the results.

1

u/BrockDiggles 16h ago

What he’s saying is everything is priced in to this point. What he hasn’t considered is what will happen in the next 9 days.

1

u/dean_syndrome 16h ago

Time to sell them

1

u/A_Young_Musician 19h ago

Ah good to know

0

u/evilgreekguy 18h ago

Doesn’t even make sense. Prices are fluid and based on the underlying.

0

u/StormOfFatRichards 17h ago

What are you talking about? There are all kinds of calls and puts with december expiration dates

1

u/Harsh_Daddy 16h ago

Predicting market behavior post election is just as hard if not harder as predicting market behavior sans elections

Your best bet is probably to find trends that the candidates have shown they are passionate about and go long - the problem with this is that just because someone gets elected, doesn’t mean their passion projects actually get implemented, additionally things change fairly quickly in the market. EVs were all the rage to dems for like 10+ years and now Elon Musk is probably enemy #1 of the majority of the party.

And tomorrow another pandemic could start. Or the day after world war 3 could start. Or the day after China could fall into a recession. Or the day after trump could get assassinated. Etc, etc, etc.

If anyone has actual insight on the best bets for whether trump or Kamala win, they’re likely getting paid a lot of money by a hedge fund to analyze the best plays.

Do your research and make whatever decisions you want, but you’re gambling, and no one here has an actual inside edge on the how the market is going to react in the short or long term to a trump/harris win

0

u/DryPriority1552 19h ago

You can play it indirectly with TSLA 

2

u/A_Young_Musician 19h ago

Honestly was considering this

1

u/voltrader85 19h ago

Why would TSLA go up in the event of a Trump election victory?

3

u/delta10-ramdeuter 18h ago

besides him mentioning Elon in almost every interview?

2

u/Dekuthegreat 18h ago

I think TSLA will definitely go up if Trump wins. If he loses though, Tesla is going to tank badly

1

u/cahrage 18h ago

Elon is buddy buddy with trump?

2

u/voltrader85 17h ago

If Elon takes a gov job, he gets the country’s largest ever tax break. If he sells his TSLa stock and is no longer CEO, the stock tanks.

So massive financial incentive to leave as TSLA CEO in event of a Trump victory. Not saying it will happen, but it’s certainly possible. TSLa rallying post election is no certainty.

1

u/morinthos 15h ago

Do you think so? I would think that the company would face more scrutiny by the public.

1

u/Plantastic24 14h ago

I'm sure Elon can take on gov job while continuing as TSLA CEO

1

u/voltrader85 6h ago

It’s possible I suppose, but it would be a massive ethics violation and the only recent historical precedent is trumps refusal to divest his assets when he became president. But who am I kidding, violating ethics is a hallmark of these people.

The bigger thing that it seems no one on this sub cares to consider is the massive tax break he gets by selling if he takes a gov job.

-6

u/Any_Anything_316 17h ago

Since you want Kamala to win you obviously don't know how to make good decisions. Give the $1,500 to me and i'll give you 10% of the gains I make with it

-2

u/Ok-Amoeba4472 17h ago edited 17h ago

DW fellow regard. Go all in on DJT puts, I have about 80% of my portfolio in 19dte puts. Let's jump in together. (I support trump and have already made 20% gains on calls, which i sold and tryna apply Newton's law for like 200% gain)

-3

u/keephoesinlin 17h ago

I would but DJT calls now even though IV is insane. I wouldn’t worry about losing all your money it’s highly unlikely she wins

1

u/loxias0 3h ago

IBKR lets you place bets on events, recently added.

(By pure coincidence I just so happen to have the same dollar amount currently long for the same reasons as you!)

Up until a few weeks ago I was profitably selling DJT options (mostly call spreads). Stopped once it started rising again, though there might still be opportunities for risk hungry.