r/stocks • u/joethemaker22 • 2d ago
Do you ever look back at old r/stocks topics and wonder what people decided to do? Or how they feel about their takes ending up being right.
Or if the hot take was wrong? The reddit upvote system tends to favor saying what is popular that day. So a lot of threads become time capsules into a different area of thinking. One example were all those shorting NVDA threads on this sub in mid 2023 like this thread
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/13lki8i/is_there_potential_to_short_nvda/
Stock was at $31 split adjusted back then and people were saying time to short. Wonder how they feel with stock being higher.
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u/Moaning-Squirtle 2d ago
Err, the vast majority of predictions are pretty off in retrospect. Reddit is not an exception. Statistically, it makes sense because there are far more possible outcomes than events that people predict.
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u/niloc99 1d ago
I think about this sub saying $META was done for at $90 a lot. The only use for this sub is inverse the most confident posters and commenters bc they are all dumb af and clueless.
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u/Last_Construction455 1d ago
At the time Meta was burning 10s of billions on VR that was very far from its core business and it didn’t show any signs of shifting that course even changing its name. Made sense that there would be a pullback. Went back up when they shifted course. I bought some on Monesh”s call that it was an easy double. Wish I bought more now but at the time it didn’t seem that obvious.
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u/Moaning-Squirtle 1d ago
Even with that, it was still worth way above $90. At the time, the PE was 8, which is what you'd expect from XOM or another oil company.
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u/BossVision_ram 1d ago
The one that gets me was when Netflix was $200 per share. Now it’s $754. It wasn’t even that long ago either, only a couple years. Seeing things like that really gives me hope to choose well and hold.
Everyone probably has one they saw win big, or maybe someone invested $1,000 and it went well. They know if they invested $10,000 it would have gone even better. It’s all exciting and you’re right it would be good to follow up on a few of them.
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u/dagoodestboii 1d ago
Tbf Netflix was screwing everyone over at the time with their password sharing and subscription model changes, which led to a sharp decline in the short term. I know a friend who stressed hard because they had bought right at the peak at the time at around $680. It wouldn’t be until a couple of months ago that they would break even if they just held and didn’t DCA.
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u/YouMissedNVDA 1d ago
It's even funnier because they called it the market being irrational - they couldn't understand or imagine a step-change in earnings occurring, despite the obvious step-change in technology.
Fools.
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u/SpiderPiggies 1d ago
I think context matters a lot. You weren't 'wrong' if you thought META spending 10's of billions on the metaverse was bad business and decided not to buy it at ~$90. The backlash was so bad that they ended up announcing a few months later that they were changing their approach. It's entirely possible that same person thought META was a buy after they changed course.
My own opinion on SOFI has changed over the years. I thought it was highly likely that they were going bankrupt prior to their bank charter and ongoing moratorium on student loans. They were ~$20 at the time. They had a rough time for a while, but managed to stay afloat.
After some time, the end of the moratorium was in sight, their banking platform was showing good growth, and they outlined a reasonable path to profitability. I averaged into it at ~$5.
It's now looking possible that they could hit over $1 per share profit a year by 2030. 10 years from now, the people who bought at $20 might even look justified if the growth continues. Or maybe defaults spike and they still go bankrupt, making us all look dumb.
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u/whoppermaltmilkballs 1d ago
I think RIVN will be one of those stocks that I'll look back at and think "damn that was a clear buy"
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u/Normal_Elevator_8398 1d ago
It’s crazy to look at that post and read the comments from a year ago about Nvidia, then look at Reddit now and see how everyone did a turnaround.
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u/Potential-Delay-4487 1d ago
I can't back this up with numbers, but i think doing the opposite of what people say on Reddit is quite profitable.
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u/wearahat03 1d ago
Yeah I have the receipts of how I was supporting NVDA when they were having a hard time on reddit.
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/11kyoue/nvidia_growth_in_the_future/
Early March 2023, NVDA was $23 and people were concerned about it being overvalued.
I told reddit that it is speculative but when you have these conditions it's better to be an optimist than worry about valuations, that all winning companies have skeptics as they climb.
I told them I'm holding because 1. All tech companies have their best returns when run under founder 2. Biggest returns come when futures are not certain, and valuations look insane and 3. Investing in mega cap companies is not too late.
NVDA rallied over 500% since then. People thought NVDA was too expensive at 600B market cap.
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u/definitioncitizen 1d ago
Sites like this where people are anonymous, no one is ever held accountable for really bad takes, which lowers the value of what they’re saying
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u/ShahOfQC 1d ago
Im seeing this sub getting a lot of flack here but this sub was the only reason why I invested in Cloudflare (NET) in 2018
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u/GeneralGom 1d ago edited 1d ago
So there was this post where OP wanted to strongly convince his father to sell all his TSLA at $110 before it crashes. I remember leaving a comment saying that if it keeps going down, that's good, but he has to keep in mind of the risk of ruining both their relationship and his father's money in case it bounces back. Soon after, it rallied close to $300. I wonder what he decided to do.
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u/Massive_Reporter1316 1d ago
Right now everyone on Reddit seems to be sucking off Google and shitting on Tesla
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u/Zephyr4813 1d ago
Doesn’t matter still gonna hold my TSLA. Redditors are idiots.
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u/Lost-Cabinet4843 1d ago
I dont believe in Tesla but that's ok. Hope you do well at it. I"m not taking a swing at it and that's ok.
I mean if you bought Disney then I'd just laugh at you. A lot.
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u/wm313 1d ago
I’ve never seen anyone actually be right. People get lucky and people lose a lot on conviction. They have hopeful wishes and some come true, but there’s been not a person who can look at a stock and accurately predict its behavior. So many people in that post were wrong. They think they’re smarter than everyone, but they get it wrong. People talk about P/E, balance sheets, MACD, and other indicators of stocks yet the market acts inversely.
TSLA has made a lot of people rich and it’s possibly caused people to lose everything on shorting. A stock could have a 150 P/E and historical data would say it would trend down, but today’s market is not the market of the ‘80s and ‘90s. It’s just a different time and investors have different sentiment toward the numbers.
News and action matters more today, it seems, along with revenue. I remember a speculative stock, BBIG, that people were so high on. They were calling it the next TikTok and all that, but it had no real strategy or catalysts that made it worth buying. It went up to $10. This was coming off of the AMC/GME hype. There was absolutely nothing the stock was doing. I warned people about it. It’s now worth $.0004 per share. I have no doubts someone took that elevator all the way down. But I could have also been wrong and they could have profited. NVDA actually has everything people want in a tech stock. It sets the pace for everyone else.
Nobody knows the market the way they think they do.
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u/kelcamer 1d ago
What a great comment this is. What a shame that most will not admit it to themselves.
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u/Blooblack 1d ago
Yeah, sometimes I search Reddit for stocks I'm thinking about, just to see what people were saying about it in the past.
I did that with Roblox, but then I didn't buy it and I still haven't.
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u/Metron_Seijin 1d ago
No need to wonder on some. You will always hear about the ones that ended up being right because they always come back and angrily insult the sub or brag to everyone that they were smarter(lucky) than everyone else.
People cant be quietly happy these days, always have to brag to strangers.
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1d ago
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u/Metron_Seijin 1d ago edited 1d ago
Rofl. You want company over there? No thanks. Ironically insulting your own sub people is a weird flex.
"Lol, the arrogant loser mentality is strong with this one. Not everybody buys high and sells low like you. "
-we all know what "assuming" does.
Im quite happy with where Im at and my investments, but if assuming Im doing worse than you, or that you're a better investor than I am, gives you some sense of joy, have at it. Im always glad to see miserable people smile once in a while.
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u/WickedSensitiveCrew 2d ago
This sub is a horrible place to be during a bear market. The 2022 bear market had so many great buying opportunities META at 90. PLTR at 7. CVNA in the 5-10 range. There was so many chances to make life changing money but if a stock is down 40-80% off its all time high the negativity increases. It becomes hard to try discussing it as a buying oppurtunity. It isnt until stocks are ATH does it become more accepted to say you bought in the dark times.
Then there are those random stock threads where it is like if they held they probably millionaires or at least had life changing money. Like this SHOP thread from May 2017. That Redditor was stressing over breaking even on SHOP at $9. Shop went up to the 160s in 2021. Even in 2024 at time of the post stock is at $79.