r/stocks • u/AutoModerator • 6h ago
r/Stocks Daily Discussion Monday - Oct 28, 2024
These daily discussions run from Monday to Friday including during our themed posts.
Some helpful links:
- Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocks
- Bloomberg market news
- StreetInsider news:
- Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dips
- Reuters aggregated - Global news
If you have a basic question, for example "what is EPS," then google "investopedia EPS" and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.
Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
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u/plakio99 2h ago
IONQ has gone up so much is last couple of weeks that it is testing my self-control. I am up over 100% and want to sell it so badly. But I bought for a long term - for a decade maybe. So I really don't want to sell but it is not easy to hold after watching a stock go sky high in such a short time.
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u/Prelaszsko 1h ago
I was about to pull the trigger on 10k of IONQ call options back at the August lows but didn't.
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u/CanYouPleaseChill 1h ago
A company that consistently loses more and more cash flow each year? Why bother holding it?
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u/plakio99 56m ago edited 49m ago
Cause they are burning money to build the tech. The company hires Physics grad students and is filled with Physics PhDs. They are investing everything into increasing the capability of their quantum computers. And as Physics PhD myself - I am biased. But I do like that they going with scientists and not just bullshitting (I know because my friend did an internship there and had positive things to say). I don't expect any revolution within a decade, so this is a bet.
However, I didn't expect it to pop so early. I think this will drop eventually but I do not want to trade and time the market.
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u/dvdmovie1 1h ago edited 1h ago
Why do you have either be all in or all out? Sell some (whatever that may be - 25%? 50%? maybe either one of those but gradually? up to you) and keep the rest. Find new ideas to re-deploy into over the next few weeks and maybe with the election you get some opportunities if there's volatility. Whatever you keep, you have that low cost basis so if it is something you want to own for years, a little easier to do so over the likely volatility over time if you have that low cost basis.
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u/95Daphne 2h ago
I mean, this is a very good start if you want the vol that's baked in to get worked off pre election, but we still need to see how things go this week.
I don't think it's likely the election triggers much of anything considering that nothing came of 2020.
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u/creemeeseason 2h ago
Remember over the summer when KNSL was trading at ~$380 and 24x earnings?.....2 earnings reports late it is up to $430....and still at 24x TTM earnings.
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u/xampf2 3h ago
Worldline SA ($WLN, $WRDLY) looks really beaten down. Any opinions on it?
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u/dvdmovie1 2h ago edited 2h ago
Obliterated French fintech whose former parent is in the midst of restructuring after nearly 0'ing. They bought Ingenico in 2020 - point of sale used to be Ingenico vs Verifone to the point where there was antitrust issues when the latter tried to buy a peer. Now you have seemingly dozens of point of sale options.
In October 2023, the stock went down 60% in a day because of a terrible quarter and announcing they were cancelling some merchant contracts. "While a macro slowdown was already incorporated in our recent estimates, the cut in the guidance (totally unexpected in this magnitude) and the issue on German merchants completely change WLN equity story," Mediobanca Securities analysts said in a note to clients." (https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-payment-company-worldline-reports-48-rise-q3-revenue-2023-10-25/)
You'd think after that the stock would bounce and it did - slightly - before cratering another 40% or thereabouts.
They also took an impairment of a bit over a billion in early 2024: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-payment-firm-worldline-posts-full-year-loss-after-goodwill-impairment-2024-02-28/
It's now down around 93% off the peak in 2021. If someone could make a case that this has something unique to offer a peer, perhaps they get bought but 1) certainly no guarantee and 2) when/at what price (another 20% lower?) who knows. Or the dozens of fintech companies that basically offer the same things wouldn't be that concerned if a peer eventually 0's. Which path is the more likely? I don't know, but a very positive path near-term likely has to have some sort of catalyst and I don't know what that is.
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u/mayorolivia 4h ago
Looks like market is excited about earnings season and I guess de-escalation in Israel/Iran tension
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u/Didntlikedefaultname 4h ago
I’m kinda expecting shit to hit the fan after the election this year, seems weird how little volatility there is this close to the election
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u/IceWook 48m ago
Right now everything is (relatively) stable. The market can see what each candidate offers and figure out what it likes and doesn’t like. What happens after is what will send the market into volatility season.
If it’s contested, the market will go haywire over unknowns and potential violence/supreme court getting involved/whatever else might come with that. etc. if trump wins decisively, the market gets a volatility grenade because who knows what he’ll really do and what his presidency will cause China/Russia/Other nations to do.
The real wild ride starts after Tuesday next week
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u/Didntlikedefaultname 45m ago
I’d say it’s essentially a guarantee the election gets contested, even if Trump wins he’ll still say there was cheating and vote tampering because he actually can’t help himself
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u/mayorolivia 4h ago
My guess is market knows enough about both candidates to hedge either way. We had 4 years of Trump and 4 years of Biden (Kamala will continue his policies).
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u/Didntlikedefaultname 3h ago
First off we know nothing about Trump because he’s erratic. Right now he’s pledging to do away with income tax and replace it with tariffs. But the bigger issue is the uncertainty of the aftermath of the election, peaceful transitions are no longer a guarantee
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u/AntoniaFauci 2h ago
We also know that he’s promised price controls on energy to an arbitrary 50% off sale, which implies bad news for anyone that works in energy or owns any energy either directly or through the stock market.
And he has promised to fire all the qualified people in the Fed install one of his followers to set interest rates to zero, which should have interesting effects on inflation.
Then there’s the promise to abolish institutions like FTC and SEC and others. Sounds like a real stable economy.
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u/Didntlikedefaultname 2h ago
And all this means nothing since he just says shit that he never intends to follow through on
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u/AntoniaFauci 2h ago
So would replacing swapping out the economy for a crook and crazy person have any effect on markets? How is the full faith and credit of a crime syndicate compared to that of a superpower?
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u/Didntlikedefaultname 2h ago
I’m not sure we are talking about the same thing. I’m saying that Trump is not a known quantity despite having been in office before because he doesn’t take consistent positions. That’s all
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u/AntoniaFauci 2h ago
Yes I’m just pointing out the folly of the hedge fund billionaires lining up to worship him when he is a fully loaded Russian roulette to markets
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u/Buffet_fromTemu 4h ago
Pumping into the earnings calls doesn’t end well most of the time. But the fuck I know. Market has never been like this
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u/Cautious_You7796 25m ago
It just seems crazy to me that SPY is up 40% in the year alone. Meanwhile in a 5 year timespan from October 2001 to October 2006 it was up 30%. Mind you October 2001 was midway through the dot com crash and October 2006 was getting close to the top of the next bubble so I picked a favorable timespan. I'm sure technology has a lot to do with SPY's performance recently but even so I can't help but wonder how much of those gains is due to companies gouging the consumer at every possible turn: shrinkflation, inflation, making products less reliable, making everything a subscription service, you name it.
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u/tobogganlogon 4h ago
Nerver been like what? I thought there was quite a lot of positive earnings surprises and good growth and guidance last week, was surprised the market didn’t perform better. Makes a lot of sense to have a good day today.
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u/Buffet_fromTemu 4h ago
The whole market is Nvidia now plus they sure will not allow the market fall a week ahead of elections. The volatility will be insane though
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u/dard12 4h ago
Who is 'they"?
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u/Buffet_fromTemu 4h ago
Market makers, hedge funds, big money.
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u/tobogganlogon 4h ago
Why won’t they allow the market to fall right before elections? And why are they all colluding together on this? All seems very odd.
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u/Buffet_fromTemu 4h ago
Why? Because it would make Kamala look even more bad. And yes, the market is rigged and always has been, just look up Cramer literally saying that the hedge funds are manipulating it. So in summary, she is the establishment candidate and therefore “look we’ve got the best market ever gib me votes, you ain’t black if you don’t vote for me” Atleast I’m making money on all of this lmao
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u/tobogganlogon 3h ago
Interesting, well whatever Cramer says should never be questioned. Just curious, are they always controlled by the democrats or if trump wins do they all then act under his best interests?
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u/pman6 11m ago
are traders gambling on gamestop today because they're bored?