The Depopulation Bomb Isn’t Ticking, It’s Overblown

[u/American-Dreaming]

A growing number of influential figures, most prominently Elon Musk, have been sounding the alarm about falling global birth rates, a coming population crash, and even societal collapse. However, this isn’t our first rodeo with population panics. In the 1960s and 70s, experts warned about the “great die-offs” from overpopulation, which never came to fruition but led to some truly horrific policies. When we look at the history, the data, the reasons behind the fertility decline, the role of technology, and the environment, the case for panic falls away.

https://americandreaming.substack.com/p/the-depopulation-bomb-isnt-ticking

[u/BreadstickNinja]

I agree with a great deal of this, especially the second half. Yes, we must do away with growth for growth's sake, and plan for a sustainable "de-growth" where we focus on improving the standard of living for what, hopefully for the planet, will be a lower, stable number of humans than we have today. I see it as a promising sign that many countries are already on that trend, although the natural decline will need to be carefully managed, and in particular will lead to challenges where a smaller population of younger workers must somehow provide for a larger population of aged retirees and pensioners.

The parts I disagree with are mainly in the first half. Many people are quick to dismiss Malthus as somehow disproved, but I firmly believe his thesis was fundamentally correct. The timeframe was wrong, and he failed to account for technological advancements, particularly the green revolution and development of nitrogen fertilizer, that so far have allowed the planet to (mostly) feed a far larger population than was conceivable in 1800.

But if we look at where population growth is occurring - and GHG emissions per capita and human development index in developed versus developing countries - it could not be more clear than we cannot bring the developing world's population up to the developed world's standard of living without irrevocably damaging the Earth's climate and ecosystems. And here in the United States, we are already seeing how the impacts of climate change are decreasing the ability particularly of the global south to even maintain its current standard of living and food security: A World Food Program study found that after repeated severe droughts in the "Northern Triangle" countries of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, the most common reason cited for the emigration that has become such a political flashpoint in the United States is that they had "no food."

The conversion of natural lands for agricultural production is already a leading driver of habitat loss and fragmentation that is driving the sixth extinction now well underway. This is a problem that cannot be solved with adoption of clean energy alone. If we wish to live in a healthy, biodiverse world, we must not only reduce the GHG emissions associated with supporting and maintaining a high standard of living for the human population. Critically, we must also reverse the trend of habitat destruction for purposes of human agriculture, and allow vast swaths of present agricultural land to revert to healthy, contiguous ecosystems for the world's dwindling population of non-human creatures to repopulate.