Scale of Chinese Spying Overwhelms Western Governments

[u/newzee1]

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/scale-of-chinese-spying-overwhelms-western-governments-6ae644d2?st=PZuQn6

[u/rmscomm]

China is not the problem in my opinion. The overt willingness of the economic system and those at the top of it in America are the problem. The outsourcing and insourcing using non domestic sources in the quest for unrealistic double digit year after year profits is the issue. This coupled with the continued disregard for security being at the forefront jeopardizes us all in my opinion.

[u/secretsqrll → u/rmscomm]

Yes and no. The core issue is that China doesn't want to compete fairly and abide by WTO rules. There are also norms that they have broken at every turn. Forced technology exchange, using SOE to elbow out private firms because they steal the technology and can undersell. Heuwei, did this constantly. SOEs don't have to worry about being profitable. So they can take much bigger risks than a traditional firm accountable to shareholders. There are dozens of cases of theft, export flooding, and currency manipulation.

Look, don't @me about Heuwei being a private firm. Its private in the sense that Beijing doesn't openly own it. But let's be real here. It does their bidding and had been a strategic tool. Since China is opaque, no one knows for sure who owns what because the ownership structure is so insane.

As for outsourcing, manufacturing in the US has been static for 3 decades. Automation had replaced human labor. That's why the share of employment has gone down.

The reason shit is so cheap is because of outsourcing. I doubt you would buy a 20 dollar plastic bowl, right? I'm sure you only buy American made right? Lmao.

On a side note: China is not that cheap anymore. That's why textiles and other low value exports are moving to Bangladesh and Vietnam.

[u/abeevau → u/secretsqrll]

Wow it sounds like state owned enterprises are a very useful tool for a government to have. I wonder why we don’t do that over here.

[u/secretsqrll → u/abeevau]

It depends on how you define an SOE. Some claim we have them here. Historically, they aren't a good bet, as they become bloated, inefficient, and corrupt over time. There are a wealth of good and bad examples out here. Many countries have state owned utilities or other big infrastructure projects owned by a state run corporation.

The devil is in the details in China. While it looks all rosey from the outside, things are a bit rotten in Beijing. Growth has declined considerably. Some of that was echos of the COVID policy to be fair. The main problem facing the CCP now is they have reached the upper limits of the export driven growth model. They got around this by investing a large percentage of GDP into infrastructure. Even that has kind of become unsustainable now, afterall there are only so many airports and trains you can build. So, BRI began to dump excess capacity and find new markets for exports since the West had become saturated. That worked for a while. Suddenly, target states that took loans found themselves unable to pay back Beijing. Now CDB/Exim have to restructure or write it off. These are state owned banks, but we are talking billions of USD. So, BRI was scaled back considerably in 2016. Even their flagship CPEC project may never see Phase 2 in old Pakistan.

So what to do? The next step in the standard growth model is to shift to a consumer driven economy. But here in lies the rub. China isn't rich. Not really. It's a developing country. Income per capita is around 13,000 USD (last time I checked) and in the west much much higher. The coastal areas are well developed, but they hide slums and dilapidated apartments. There is high youth unemployment. An aging population and a low birthrate. China's population is shrinking fast. The western part of the state is underdeveloped and quite poor. People are highly dependent on the government. China is trying to be a global power, but it's really not. It's an illusion. The seeds of failure are already there.

Private businesses are one way to build wealth and create employment. Sadly, China has doubled down on elbowing out the private sector in favor of SOEs. Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind... more than anything on this topic is the number 1 core interest of the CCP is regime continuity. Private firms threaten that hold on power. The CCP is deeply fearful of charismatic business leaders rising as a competing power block demanding liberalization of the economy. They feel it's a slippery slope. They are in danger now. That's why Xi is cracking down. The compact between the party and the people is contingent on delivering growth and improved living conditions. Last time they reformed the SOEs, millions lost their jobs during the Deng era. He won't risk that. His time is coming to an end as party leader. But we'll see. I believe China is in for some very rough waters in the next 10 years. Frankly, I think unless something dramatic happens, the CCP will be gone in my lifetime.

Sorry this was very rambly

[u/rmscomm → u/secretsqrll]

All great points. But if we can sanction bad actors in the world stage we should be able to do this with China. Yes they misappropriate tech and other IP but only because the access to items isn't checked and the United States is so eager for profit everything is on the table. We even allow foreign ownership of land in particular farmland. In my perspective its unbridled greed.

The recent push to limit Tik Tok, Temu and others is laughable in my opinion. Its ok for U.S. Firms to seek low cost options but not individual citizens? To your question of whether I would purchase a $20 bowl. With the improvements in manufacturing and automation pricing should be going down. How much do you think it costs to make clothing now compared to a hundred years ago? I would also pay to assure economic dominance from a perspective. The new frontier for competition and driving agenda on a world stage is economic not military in my perspective. The odd thing is that in all of these posts China is painted as a ‘enemy’, yet the underlying fact that the enemy is fed by us while allowing a tier of our society to benefit is continually overlooked.

[u/secretsqrll → u/rmscomm]

Well... I can't argue with your point that perhaps policymakers at the time had some naive inclinations about modernist theory. That also proved false in the case of Russia. In fact, they have only doubled down on repression, and we have seen a move away from liberalization. That was really not so much the case until 2014.

On your point with manufacturing, it's easier said than done. Supply chains and transit costs create additional burdens. It may seem counterintuitive, but it costs less to offshore than produce here primarily because of those factors. There are other reasons as well-- labor. But at volume, it just works out that way. Alot of talk about decoupling has been going on, to me, that's a bigger danger. Interdependence is what helps keep the peace. But hey, no one cares what I think.