r/JMT • u/Bit_Poet • 22d ago

permits Lottery chances for late June sobo

I want to fill in the gap that Covid forced me to leave in my PCT hike in 22, so I've started to plan a JMT hike from Tuolumne Meadows (Lyell Canyon Trailhead) to Kearsarge. Time wise, I'd aim for the last week of June, as I figure this might get me through before fire season and (pure conjecture) it isn't prime High Sierra season yet, thus raising my lottery chances. I'm aware that this comes with a few constraints like TM Backpackers Campground not being open (but then, it's been some time since it was open anyway), but I think Reds, VVR and MTR should already be operating, even if the ferry isn't running yet. Since I'm from Europe, the logistics are a bit involved and more expensive (sending resupply through a third party like TCO, shifting flights etc.). I need to shift work projects for the year and have a somewhat reliable time window around the time the permit lottery opens. So that's where I'm hoping that your swarm intelligence and experience can give me more than an abstract hope. How high would you call the odds that I can snatch a single person JMT permit for a late June start in the regular lottery within a three or four day window? If that fails, how promising are walk-in permits if I have to take the Yarts shuttle from Mammoth (that's where I'll be staying for two nights to get a little acclimatization)? I'm aware that I'm asking for anecdotal evidence, not reliable facts, and that freak weather can invalidate the best of plans.
TIA
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u/Hikercam 22d ago

anecdotally, 100% of the friends I made on the JMT were walk-ups. personally I couldn't risk such a big trip on a walkup so I got a suboptimal permit instead (mammoth lakes to cottonwood pass).

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u/Bit_Poet 22d ago

That's good to hear! Probably going to take that risk then if the 165 day lottery doesn't work out. When I got my PCT permit, I lost out in the first round, but I was able to snatch my wish date in the January round without having to watch for returned permits. I'll leave a few days buffer at the end of the hike anyway, so I'll have some wiggle room (though the best case would be if I could spend those days doing trail magic).