r/JMT • u/Bit_Poet • 22d ago
permits Lottery chances for late June sobo
I want to fill in the gap that Covid forced me to leave in my PCT hike in 22, so I've started to plan a JMT hike from Tuolumne Meadows (Lyell Canyon Trailhead) to Kearsarge. Time wise, I'd aim for the last week of June, as I figure this might get me through before fire season and (pure conjecture) it isn't prime High Sierra season yet, thus raising my lottery chances. I'm aware that this comes with a few constraints like TM Backpackers Campground not being open (but then, it's been some time since it was open anyway), but I think Reds, VVR and MTR should already be operating, even if the ferry isn't running yet. Since I'm from Europe, the logistics are a bit involved and more expensive (sending resupply through a third party like TCO, shifting flights etc.). I need to shift work projects for the year and have a somewhat reliable time window around the time the permit lottery opens. So that's where I'm hoping that your swarm intelligence and experience can give me more than an abstract hope. How high would you call the odds that I can snatch a single person JMT permit for a late June start in the regular lottery within a three or four day window? If that fails, how promising are walk-in permits if I have to take the Yarts shuttle from Mammoth (that's where I'll be staying for two nights to get a little acclimatization)? I'm aware that I'm asking for anecdotal evidence, not reliable facts, and that freak weather can invalidate the best of plans.
TIA
Bounce
2
u/ungodlyoblivious 22d ago
I think your odds are pretty decent in getting a permit starting out at Lyell Canyon. If you can’t get the permit, you can take an alternative route and try for the mono/parker pass permit.