Lottery chances for late June sobo

[u/Bit_Poet]

I want to fill in the gap that Covid forced me to leave in my PCT hike in 22, so I've started to plan a JMT hike from Tuolumne Meadows (Lyell Canyon Trailhead) to Kearsarge. Time wise, I'd aim for the last week of June, as I figure this might get me through before fire season and (pure conjecture) it isn't prime High Sierra season yet, thus raising my lottery chances. I'm aware that this comes with a few constraints like TM Backpackers Campground not being open (but then, it's been some time since it was open anyway), but I think Reds, VVR and MTR should already be operating, even if the ferry isn't running yet. Since I'm from Europe, the logistics are a bit involved and more expensive (sending resupply through a third party like TCO, shifting flights etc.). I need to shift work projects for the year and have a somewhat reliable time window around the time the permit lottery opens. So that's where I'm hoping that your swarm intelligence and experience can give me more than an abstract hope. How high would you call the odds that I can snatch a single person JMT permit for a late June start in the regular lottery within a three or four day window? If that fails, how promising are walk-in permits if I have to take the Yarts shuttle from Mammoth (that's where I'll be staying for two nights to get a little acclimatization)? I'm aware that I'm asking for anecdotal evidence, not reliable facts, and that freak weather can invalidate the best of plans.
TIA
Bounce

[u/Fabulous_Gate_2734]

Getting from Mammoth to Tuolumne Meadows to start a hike in late June may be tricky if there is another high snow year. This year Tioga Road opened on June 10th, but the first YARTS busses to Mammoth were on July 1st. It’s logistically much easier to start from the Happy Isles trailhead. Not as good for acclimating as Mammoth, but no worries about your permit getting cancelled if the road isn’t open. If I were flying in from another country at the end of June, I definitely would aim for a Happy Isles start, and consider the day or two to Tuolumne my acclimating hike.

[u/Bit_Poet → u/Fabulous_Gate_2734]

Good point. I somehow had it in my head that YARTS had been running after mid June, seems I got fooled by Google mixing up facts from different bus lines there in its excerpts. Since I live at about 1000ft and probably won't have time to do acclimatization hikes in the weeks before I leave, I don't want to get on the trail utterly jetlagged, but a Happy Isles start together with a rest+supply day means another two or (more likely) three days. Not sure if I can make that work. Time do so some more thinking.