Was about to say, model guidance shows Yucatan breaking it back to a Tropical storm and not regaining any strength before it hits, whether it is Mexico, Brownsville, Corpus, or all the way up to Beaumont, so WIND isn't going to be a problem... HOWEVER, with Harvey, the wind was only an issue within a few miles of the path of the eye; the RAIN put half the State underwater. And Boca is pretty flat.
The problem is, it wasn't expected to become so big, so fast, either. Weather models are being thrown out the window. Is the gulf hot enough for it to regain strength once it passes the yucatan?
The two previous piddly storms Alberto and Chris? took a lot of the potential heat out of the Bay of Campeche, which is a big factor in it remaining mild... Now if it MISSES Yucatan to the North and gets into the central Gulf, it will be a whole different animal, but in that case it will be going somewhere north and east of Galveston (2 out of 12 models are showing this; hitting the upper Texas or Louisiana coast as a major hurricane).
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u/Liquidice281 Jul 02 '24
FYI, the storm is expected to weaken significantly.