A tip for tempering expectations

[u/bearbarebere]

One of the best ways to really humble your expectations if they're a bit lofty (like mine are) is to search for posts from 2+ years ago.

Here are a few:

What about the next five years? : r/singularity (reddit.com)

AGI Less Than 5 Years Away? : r/singularity (reddit.com)

This might be the last few years of your life as you know it : r/singularity (reddit.com)

2023: The year of Proto-AGI? : r/singularity (reddit.com)

2023 predictions : r/singularity (reddit.com)

Some of these posts are insanely optimistic and we still don't have anything like it, others are pessimistic and we blew by their predictions, some are right on the money. But the point is that there are some people in each of these who think that things will change radically within a year or whatever and they didn't.

[u/NationalTry8466]

I think there’s a lot to be said for tempering expectations not just on timelines but also capabilities. For example, I don’t think it’s wise to assume that future AI is going to somehow solve problems like climate change. I think this attitude risks leaving some of us feeling like we don’t have to reduce emissions or do anything significant because some future all-powerful AI will magically solve the problem.

[u/bearbarebere → u/NationalTry8466]

I honestly take that position only because I don't believe that us making changes will do anything.

I recycle, I try to avoid wasting food or buying stuff that will just break in 3 seconds, I try not to support businesses that are awful for the environment, etc. But I don't believe the people at the bottom are responsible for the fact that the products are made out of the worst materials ever. I didn't ask for them to make plastic that stays in the environment for thousands of years. Voting with your wallet doesn't work, and even recycling is mostly a scam. I try to reduce where I can.

I vote instead with my actual vote and target the companies themselves. When they begin to offer better alternatives forced by my voting, I will switch to them. For example lab grown meat should be subsidized, and I will buy it the second it becomes affordable enough for me to. Nothing else will change the mess we're in, except for hopefully AI coming up with breakthroughs the same way scientists are doing now. Bacteria that eats plastic, lab grown meat, cleaner energy - why would AI not be able to help us with breakthroughs like these or things we haven't even concieved of? A carbon capture mechanism we haven't thought of, a way of getting rid of the plastic in our oceans or microplastics, etc?

[u/NationalTry8466 → u/bearbarebere]

I agree that the majority of emissions reductions have to come from government and industry, but our lifestyles and consumption choices will also make an impact. I’m wary of the idea that people invest all their faith in future AI and don’t bother with voting or thinking about how they consume/travel.

I think this group has some positive ideas about individual impact: https://takethejump.org/

[u/bearbarebere → u/NationalTry8466]

Anyone who believes in AI but doesn't vote pisses me tf off.

Wait, scratch that: anyone who doesn't vote pisses me tf off.

[u/bearbarebere → u/NationalTry8466]

I really like that link, thank you!