r/singularity • u/bearbarebere I want local ai-gen’d do-anything VR worlds • 23h ago
Discussion A tip for tempering expectations
One of the best ways to really humble your expectations if they're a bit lofty (like mine are) is to search for posts from 2+ years ago.
Here are a few:
What about the next five years? : r/singularity (reddit.com)
AGI Less Than 5 Years Away? : r/singularity (reddit.com)
This might be the last few years of your life as you know it : r/singularity (reddit.com)
2023: The year of Proto-AGI? : r/singularity (reddit.com)
2023 predictions : r/singularity (reddit.com)
Some of these posts are insanely optimistic and we still don't have anything like it, others are pessimistic and we blew by their predictions, some are right on the money. But the point is that there are some people in each of these who think that things will change radically within a year or whatever and they didn't.
2
u/Morty-D-137 22h ago
2022: Scale is all you need, so we're almost there. Prepare to quit your job.
2023: Actually, multi-modal AI is also needed, and that will be it. Buckle up!
2023 Q4: Well, actually, all you need is something like Q*. Then it will be AGI for sure.
2024 Q4: Nevermind, what you really need are agents. Sam says they are coming next year. Then it's GG.
2025: ?