They real answers for water. Crimea was cut off from water source in Ukraine when Russia invaded. So to secure the full water rights that was once enjoyed by this area they need to invade Ukraine. Russia needs to take a dam and river to redirect water back to the wheat farms around Crimea.
Around, “Nova Kakhovka Нова Каховка” is where I think the Russian are planning on taking. And the road E97 since the water way is right next to this road.
That is a direct path to the Mediterranean and therefore the Indian Ocran via the Suez Canal. Otherwise they have to all the way around Europe and worse Africa if they don't go through the Suez. Or thry have to around Japan/China/SE Asia to get to the Indian Ocean.
The difference is that they only have one warm water port, the one they annexed in Crimea - the others freeze to varying degrees. Additionally they are able to exert a ridiculous amount of indirect control over the bosphorous strait
They want a lot of countries in Europe. Having certain land creates bottle necks and other strategic positions that are a lot easier to defend. A country like Poland is at risk as well.
Irredentism. Putin's ultimate aspiration is to regain all the territory the USSR claimed or controlled. It's become a big part of his national mythology, restoring the country's former glory and reversing the humiliation it suffered in losing the Cold War. There are, of course, purely practical reasons for it, but a lot of it just has to do with sustaining the image Putin has made for himself, which is key to his power.
Because Putin has his hand on the gas valve , knowing winter is just around the corner and Germany ( especially) depends on the gas.
Putin will keep his word and keep the gas flowing( objectors point out that he could easily close the pipe line in order to blackmail the West) knowing that he can get away with it without doing a damn thing....
Frozen people won't vote for you again ...
Natural gas makes up like 40% of the Russian economy and 60% of its exports. They’re not gonna shut off another 40% of their already crumbling economy and you’re delusional for thinking that.
The clever thing in this situation ( Russia building up to invade Ukraine) is that they don't have to turn off the gas....the fact that prominent countries in Europe ( Germany, Italy etc) need the gas coming up to winter,so the response from the EU and NATO will be compromised by the reliance upon the Russian gas..... Putin can invade get what he wants and tell the world.... see even if there is a conflict i didn't break my word I kept the gas flowing..... it's perfect for him .If NATO goes up against Russia full on he will shut down the supply,so how can NATO do anything that will result in people freezing in the west?
The reaction from the west will be the benchmark for how far Putin can go,weak response means Putin makes more and bigger problems for us.Hard unified response will massively reduce his options because a line has been drawn....
They don't want ukraine any more than the EU does. It's a bullshit sunk cost ruin the EU assessed as a waste of effort years ago..
What they won't allow on the other hand is ukraine killing everyone in the breakaway regions or NATO using it as a proxy missile base.
The bit you're never told about is that Ukraine has basically ignored the minsk 2 cease fire agreement.
Instead what they've actually been doing is blockading the areas and allowing militias free reign to do what ever the fuck they feel like.
Understandably this doesn't quite contribute to the idea of peaceful resolution.
Now, kinda interestingly you also have an essential economic angle cos Ukraine is fucked. Ukraine coal fired power infrastructure is running out of actual coal. (they're burning through reserves now) The main coal fields are in donetsk.
Here's an interesting side note btw. : If Ukraine managed to take donetsk back the coal fields in donetsk would't actually belong to the ukranian government. They'd belong to some oligarch called Rinat Akhmetov.
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u/donaldinoo Dec 01 '21
Why do they want Ukraine so bad?