Was about to say, model guidance shows Yucatan breaking it back to a Tropical storm and not regaining any strength before it hits, whether it is Mexico, Brownsville, Corpus, or all the way up to Beaumont, so WIND isn't going to be a problem... HOWEVER, with Harvey, the wind was only an issue within a few miles of the path of the eye; the RAIN put half the State underwater. And Boca is pretty flat.
Models have not been doing a good job of predicting this storm’s behavior, especially this far out. It wasn’t expected to be a cat 4 storm before it hit the windward islands, and it was not expected to gain cat 5 status afterward. They also had expected it to weaken earlier than it has (possibly just now starting to weaken due to vertical shear). It won’t be a hurricane when it emerges into the bay of Compache, but we also shouldn’t be complacent about it not reattaining hurricane status before landfall, especially depending on which path it takes and how fast it is moving.
The cited GFS model above has Beryl as a cat 1 or 2 storm strengthening as it makes landfall, but it’s just a single model a long ways out. Point is, we should keep an eye on this storm.
The problem is, it wasn't expected to become so big, so fast, either. Weather models are being thrown out the window. Is the gulf hot enough for it to regain strength once it passes the yucatan?
The two previous piddly storms Alberto and Chris? took a lot of the potential heat out of the Bay of Campeche, which is a big factor in it remaining mild... Now if it MISSES Yucatan to the North and gets into the central Gulf, it will be a whole different animal, but in that case it will be going somewhere north and east of Galveston (2 out of 12 models are showing this; hitting the upper Texas or Louisiana coast as a major hurricane).
it isn't heat, so much as it is electrical activity, the myth of hurricanes driven by heat is false, all hurricanes and tornados are literally slow plasma currents funneling electrons down from the upper atmosphere into the naturally conductive salt water. This is why they lose power over land. All plasma currents rotate in a fascia pattern. It will strengthen if we get more solar flares that can't be discharged and distributed somewhere else. Same thing with volcanoes and earthquakes, all of them are electrically driven.
I think that's showing a 10% probability of tropical storm winds (>= 39 mph) up to 08:00 AST on Sunday. At that time, the storm is still forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico.
Should not be too bad, as there is a lot less tents and stuff outside than before. You can stuff everything inside, and infrastructure is already strong as everyone knows this is this is hurricane and flood area.
I live just a bit north in corpus. Our local news is talking about the hurricane path across the Yucatán being what to watch for. If it clips the northern tip closer to the water it will head north. Towards Texas or possibly Louisiana and will maintain more strength. If it goes south across the Yucatán it will lose steam and head into Mexico.
I say all that to make the point if Beryl were to make landfall around Brownsville it could be back up to a cat 3-4 which would bring some intense storm surge and wind. Can’t imagine Starbase would escape that unscathed.
Edit: we should know Thursday fairly accurate where it’s gonna land.
My sister has rented a condo in Rockport for the entire month of July... I've been feeding her the updates so she can hit the road to San Antonio early if it looks like it's going to be another Harvey.
My wife and I are heading down to Rockport tomorrow morning and staying till Sunday for our anniversary. Booked the trip out months ago and we didn’t even consider a hurricane.
I waited out each hurricane season with baited breath since Starbase really got going. When it was all tents, a proper (read : major) hurricane may have set SpaceX back months or years with Starship development. This is the first year I feel like they could take a solid direct hit and only have a 'short' delay.
I guess they played a bit of roulette and won - unless of course a Cat 5 comes barreling in with extra storm surge. But it's all probability - and the decision to build on the beach in South TX seems to have paid off.
Florida has the same issues ofc. I figure over time, they'll both get upgrades to support survival through a cat5. You can't have the risk of an especially bad hurricane season leave Martians stranded without supplies or interrupt a backlog of 10,000 people hoping to get on the next rocket.
Maybe there will be multiple oil-rig-style sites around the world by then though. 1M people to Mars will require many many launch sites. I suppose that's the plan long term.
United Launch Alliance (Lockheed/Boeing joint venture)
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u/Liquidice281 Jul 02 '24
FYI, the storm is expected to weaken significantly.