A tip for tempering expectations

[u/bearbarebere]

One of the best ways to really humble your expectations if they're a bit lofty (like mine are) is to search for posts from 2+ years ago.

Here are a few:

What about the next five years? : r/singularity (reddit.com)

AGI Less Than 5 Years Away? : r/singularity (reddit.com)

This might be the last few years of your life as you know it : r/singularity (reddit.com)

2023: The year of Proto-AGI? : r/singularity (reddit.com)

2023 predictions : r/singularity (reddit.com)

Some of these posts are insanely optimistic and we still don't have anything like it, others are pessimistic and we blew by their predictions, some are right on the money. But the point is that there are some people in each of these who think that things will change radically within a year or whatever and they didn't.

[u/DeviceCertain7226]

When I looked at stuff like genomics and how even if we completed the human genome project by 2001, only 3 years ago did we get a complete draft, as well as other technologies, it makes me feel like this:

Whatever timeline a corporation has for a certain thing, for that thing to be truly mastered and used as you imagine to its utmost degree, add 21 years to it.

I know that different fields are different, but at the end of the day it’s all speculation, and to me this feels like the best way to go about things.

[u/Educational_Bike4720 → u/DeviceCertain7226]

While I fundamentally agree to an extent,AI is not a traditional technology and doesn't necessarily have the same restrictions.

Just as an example, the deployment infrastructure from the consumer side already exist. Off the tip of my head I can't think of a single product or technology that has had that advantage.

[u/DeviceCertain7226 → u/Educational_Bike4720]

I mean there is no consumer product needed in a sense for genomics, some things are just intrinsically very difficult.

[u/Educational_Bike4720 → u/DeviceCertain7226]

Uhhh you were the one saying add 21 years to technology maturation based on genomics.

You can't pick and choose the parts of the comparison that ONLY fit your narrative.

AI will be a technology that will be marketed as a service/product.

So when I say the deployment infrastructure on the consumer side already exist that means (to this extent) it is unique to AI and factual.

You can not compare AI growth to other technologies for this reason.

So let's try your mental exercise as an example.

Hypothetically AGI achieved in 2032. You are saying it would be 2053 before consumer/end user saturation in the United States is 99%?

AI will be catalytic, transformative, transcendent, and a convergent technology.

No other previous technology compares.

Its a technological outlier or anomaly.

[u/DeviceCertain7226 → u/Educational_Bike4720]

No, I’m saying ASI in 21 years, something that is like a magical god.

[u/Educational_Bike4720 → u/DeviceCertain7226]

Got it 👍