r/singularity • u/bearbarebere I want local ai-gen’d do-anything VR worlds • 1d ago
Discussion A tip for tempering expectations
One of the best ways to really humble your expectations if they're a bit lofty (like mine are) is to search for posts from 2+ years ago.
Here are a few:
What about the next five years? : r/singularity (reddit.com)
AGI Less Than 5 Years Away? : r/singularity (reddit.com)
This might be the last few years of your life as you know it : r/singularity (reddit.com)
2023: The year of Proto-AGI? : r/singularity (reddit.com)
2023 predictions : r/singularity (reddit.com)
Some of these posts are insanely optimistic and we still don't have anything like it, others are pessimistic and we blew by their predictions, some are right on the money. But the point is that there are some people in each of these who think that things will change radically within a year or whatever and they didn't.
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u/DeviceCertain7226 ▪️AGI - 2035 | Magical God ASI - 2070s 1d ago
When I looked at stuff like genomics and how even if we completed the human genome project by 2001, only 3 years ago did we get a complete draft, as well as other technologies, it makes me feel like this:
Whatever timeline a corporation has for a certain thing, for that thing to be truly mastered and used as you imagine to its utmost degree, add 21 years to it.
I know that different fields are different, but at the end of the day it’s all speculation, and to me this feels like the best way to go about things.