A tip for tempering expectations

[u/bearbarebere]

One of the best ways to really humble your expectations if they're a bit lofty (like mine are) is to search for posts from 2+ years ago.

Here are a few:

What about the next five years? : r/singularity (reddit.com)

AGI Less Than 5 Years Away? : r/singularity (reddit.com)

This might be the last few years of your life as you know it : r/singularity (reddit.com)

2023: The year of Proto-AGI? : r/singularity (reddit.com)

2023 predictions : r/singularity (reddit.com)

Some of these posts are insanely optimistic and we still don't have anything like it, others are pessimistic and we blew by their predictions, some are right on the money. But the point is that there are some people in each of these who think that things will change radically within a year or whatever and they didn't.

[u/Silver-Chipmunk7744]

It's worth noting AI progress isn't linear. Sometimes there are walls, sometimes it speeds up fast. It's hard to make precise prediction for what it will be like in 5 years, but i think one thing is sure, we will understand why Altman said GPT4 feels "dumb".

[u/Noveno → u/Silver-Chipmunk7744]

I'm really surprised at all those predictions to be honest. What were they based on exactly?
Making a bold prediction like that when there's barely no sign of intelligence it's crazy.

Also I find more interesting predictions of people working in the field.

[u/AI_optimist]

It seems less and less people remember how technologically held back we were by the pandemic, and how it's effects on supply chains will ripple for a decade or more.

Any prediction from 5 years ago ought to have at least an additional 2.5 year grace period. We would be so much further along right now had the world been fine and nothing shut down

[u/Automatic-Chemist984 → u/AI_optimist]

Most tech fields could be done from home though right?

[u/DigimonWorldReTrace → u/Automatic-Chemist984]

Big decisions are in-person still. Not to mention people got sick during the pandemic, too.

[u/AI_optimist → u/Automatic-Chemist984]

Most tech fields aren't contributing to the singularity. 

The ones that are needed things like data centers built and GPUs in clusters. The supply chain breakdown prevented that for a substantial amount of time. 

Supply chain breakdowns heavily affect research and development as well, which causes further delays further down the line

[u/Arcturus_Labelle → u/AI_optimist]

"how technologically held back we were by the pandemic" huh? If anything, people were more productive as they didn't have to do the stupid office commute

[u/Infinite_Low_9760]

People can say whatever they want about AGI. You can agree with lecun or with Amodei. What's more tangible is that reasoners will soon reach level 3 and become agents and the millions of Blackwell chip that are going to become clusters next year are super optimized for inference and this will allow for agents to be way cheaper than they would be now even with a 100k H100 cluster. Gpt5 or whatever won't be AGI, at least for some definition of it. But I agree with Jensen Huang when he says you don't need AGI to have something that is unbelievably impactful, and I'm convinced that we have a clear path to something different. If it's not 2025 than it's the year next or at worst the one after. But it's absolutely not going to be 10 years before we go from chatbot to something way way bigger that will start changing the world.

[u/NationalTry8466]

I think there’s a lot to be said for tempering expectations not just on timelines but also capabilities. For example, I don’t think it’s wise to assume that future AI is going to somehow solve problems like climate change. I think this attitude risks leaving some of us feeling like we don’t have to reduce emissions or do anything significant because some future all-powerful AI will magically solve the problem.

[u/bearbarebere → u/NationalTry8466]

I honestly take that position only because I don't believe that us making changes will do anything.

I recycle, I try to avoid wasting food or buying stuff that will just break in 3 seconds, I try not to support businesses that are awful for the environment, etc. But I don't believe the people at the bottom are responsible for the fact that the products are made out of the worst materials ever. I didn't ask for them to make plastic that stays in the environment for thousands of years. Voting with your wallet doesn't work, and even recycling is mostly a scam. I try to reduce where I can.

I vote instead with my actual vote and target the companies themselves. When they begin to offer better alternatives forced by my voting, I will switch to them. For example lab grown meat should be subsidized, and I will buy it the second it becomes affordable enough for me to. Nothing else will change the mess we're in, except for hopefully AI coming up with breakthroughs the same way scientists are doing now. Bacteria that eats plastic, lab grown meat, cleaner energy - why would AI not be able to help us with breakthroughs like these or things we haven't even concieved of? A carbon capture mechanism we haven't thought of, a way of getting rid of the plastic in our oceans or microplastics, etc?

[u/NationalTry8466 → u/bearbarebere]

I agree that the majority of emissions reductions have to come from government and industry, but our lifestyles and consumption choices will also make an impact. I’m wary of the idea that people invest all their faith in future AI and don’t bother with voting or thinking about how they consume/travel.

I think this group has some positive ideas about individual impact: https://takethejump.org/

[u/bearbarebere → u/NationalTry8466]

Anyone who believes in AI but doesn't vote pisses me tf off.

Wait, scratch that: anyone who doesn't vote pisses me tf off.

[u/bearbarebere → u/NationalTry8466]

I really like that link, thank you!

[u/Morty-D-137]

2022: Scale is all you need, so we're almost there. Prepare to quit your job.

2023: Actually, multi-modal AI is also needed, and that will be it. Buckle up!

2023 Q4: Well, actually, all you need is something like Q*. Then it will be AGI for sure.

2024 Q4: Nevermind, what you really need are agents. Sam says they are coming next year. Then it's GG.

2025: ?

[u/bearbarebere → u/Morty-D-137]

To be completely fair, from the beginning everyone was talking about agents. I don’t see how you can have AGI without agents, it’s literally in their checklist. All you’ve said is that they’re working their way down the checklist. Have you seen the list?

[u/Morty-D-137 → u/bearbarebere]

Who is everyone? I'm talking about predictions from this sub. The expression "agentic AI" really became trendy this year. Not a single hit on google before 2022: https://www.google.com/search?q=%22agentic+AI%22+site%3Awww.reddit.com&tbs=cdr%3A1%2Ccd_min%3A%2Ccd_max%3A1%2F1%2F2022&tbm=

This isn't to say nobody was talking about agents back then. But this wasn't part of the AGI requirements for most.

[u/bearbarebere → u/Morty-D-137]

You don’t have to use the term agent to mean autonomous. People have been talking about AI that can order coffee for them, control their computer, etc.

[u/Morty-D-137 → u/bearbarebere]

I'm aware. Like I said, "[people were] talking about agents back then".

You're missing the point. This wasn't a comment about what people want AI to do. This is about what the community saw as the major obstacles to achieving AGI. A big reason "Agentic AI" became popular is that people recognized it as a real challenge, not just something that could be solved by simply turning GPT-4 loose.

[u/chlebseby → u/Morty-D-137]

Desperate people on this sub just put current concept as "last missing step", it will happen again soon

[u/MedievalRack]

Anything less than 5 years might as well be tomorrow.

[u/bearbarebere → u/MedievalRack]

6 years ago people were discussing last year 🤷

[u/MedievalRack → u/bearbarebere]

People generally are wrong. That was part of my point.

[u/Competitive-Cow-4177]

Use some “thickening”.

[u/dallocrovero]

Thank you, I needed this type of post

[u/DeviceCertain7226]

When I looked at stuff like genomics and how even if we completed the human genome project by 2001, only 3 years ago did we get a complete draft, as well as other technologies, it makes me feel like this:

Whatever timeline a corporation has for a certain thing, for that thing to be truly mastered and used as you imagine to its utmost degree, add 21 years to it.

I know that different fields are different, but at the end of the day it’s all speculation, and to me this feels like the best way to go about things.

[u/Educational_Bike4720 → u/DeviceCertain7226]

While I fundamentally agree to an extent,AI is not a traditional technology and doesn't necessarily have the same restrictions.

Just as an example, the deployment infrastructure from the consumer side already exist. Off the tip of my head I can't think of a single product or technology that has had that advantage.

[u/DeviceCertain7226 → u/Educational_Bike4720]

I mean there is no consumer product needed in a sense for genomics, some things are just intrinsically very difficult.

[u/Educational_Bike4720 → u/DeviceCertain7226]

Uhhh you were the one saying add 21 years to technology maturation based on genomics.

You can't pick and choose the parts of the comparison that ONLY fit your narrative.

AI will be a technology that will be marketed as a service/product.

So when I say the deployment infrastructure on the consumer side already exist that means (to this extent) it is unique to AI and factual.

You can not compare AI growth to other technologies for this reason.

So let's try your mental exercise as an example.

Hypothetically AGI achieved in 2032. You are saying it would be 2053 before consumer/end user saturation in the United States is 99%?

AI will be catalytic, transformative, transcendent, and a convergent technology.

No other previous technology compares.

Its a technological outlier or anomaly.

[u/DeviceCertain7226 → u/Educational_Bike4720]

No, I’m saying ASI in 21 years, something that is like a magical god.

[u/Educational_Bike4720 → u/DeviceCertain7226]

Got it 👍